In the article James lists 20 points that he sees as influencing factors to all weather selections. The points are quite interesting and some are basic and some take a little digging to find.
So with the all weather racing coming into its own this time of year I thought it may be of interest to you.
1. Treat Southwell form in isolation
Remember that Southwell is the only all weather track that is made from a Fibresand surface and that it rides very differently to the Polytrack used at the other five all-weather tracks in Britain and Ireland.
Be wary of in-form horses who are switching from Fibresand to Polytrack or vice versa, as they may not be able to transfer their form.
2. Avoid debutants at Southwell
3. Follow Haafhd's progeny on Polytrack
When assessing the chances of inexperienced horses, it's always worth taking a look at the breeding, as the progeny of certain sires seem to take better than others.
It's still early days for Polytrack, but one sire who is achieving remarkable results with his first crop on the surface is Haafhd. The record of his progeny on Polytrack in Britain and Ireland stands at 11 winners from 29 runners.
4. Follow Pivotal and Captain Rio's offspring at Southwell
Pivotal used to be the top sire to follow at Southwell, but his blossoming stud career means that these days fewer of his offspring are handled by trainers who regularly send runners to the track. However this season there will be plenty of trainers who like having runners at Southwell with Captain Rio's progeny among their ranks, and he is rapidly becoming the new king of the fibresand sires. The record of Captain Rio's progeny at the track is ten winners for 40 runners (25 per cent, £47.38 profit to a £1 level stake).
5. Importance of Speed
Racing on synthetic surfaces places an emphasis on speed, whether the races are staged over 5f or 2miles. It's absolutely essential that you are able to travel well on the all-weather.
6. Latch on to the top apprentices
The all-weather has been a fertile ground for some of the brighter young apprentices to showcase their talents, and promising riders who are good value for their claims are always in demand.
The low-grade handicaps that make up a sizeable chunk of the racing are often loaded with exposed and closely matched horses, so booking a good apprentice can make a massive differnce.
The key is to catch these hot apprentices early. This is highlighted by the fact that Kirsty Milczarek's all-weather record from the start of September 2007 to the end of March 2008 was 49 winners from 268 rides (18.3 per cent strike-rate) and that £10 on each of these rides would have resulted in a £500 profit. The two to follow this season could be Frederik Tylicki and Andrea Arzeni.
7. Look out for horses likely to get soft leads in small fields
Pace is one of the most important factors in all-weather racing, so a good angle to find horses who may get soft leads in small fields.
8. Make a note of free-going sorts who run well in tactical middle distance /staying races.
Horses rarely win when they erode vital energy reserves by pulling too hard in the early stages, so horses who race keenly but still manage no finish in the first third of the field are definitely worth putting into the memory bank.
9. Follow Gary Moore
Record in last five seasons
course w-r (%) p/l
Great Leighs 7-23 (30%) +20.25
Kempton 40-244 (16%) +4.34
Lingfield 89-641 (14%) +21.87
Wolves 18-83 (22%) +27.74
Southwell 10-52 (19%) -4.34
Gary Moore has sent out more than 1,000 runners on the all-weather in the last five seasons, so it's remarkable that you could have made a profit by backing his runners at each of the four Polytrack courses, while at Southwell you would have suffered only a small level-stakes loss of £4.34.
10. Follow George Baker
George Baker is the best judge of pace on the British all-weather tracks. He is an artist when at the top of his game, so look out for him on all the Polytrack courses but particularly at Lingfield, where his profit/loss figure in the last five seasons is +£112.58
11. Keep William Jarvis trained runners having their first starts in all-weather handicaps staged over 1m or shorter on your side.
Look out for his runners when he pitches them into an all-weather handicap for the first time. Jarvis's record with all-weather handicap debutants in races staged at 1M or shorter is eight winners from 56 runners (14 per cent strike-rate) and they usually start at decent prices, highlighted by the huge profit-loss figure of +£62.50 to a £1 level stake.
12. Look out for Godolphin rejuvenated cast-offs
Capricorn run and Atlantic Story were two of top horses on the all-weather last season; Capricorn Run won five times for Alan McCabe, while Atlantic Story matched that total for Mick Easterby. The two things that Capricorn Run and Atlantic Story have in common is that they have American pedigrees, suggesting that they would appreciate a consistent surface, and they started their careers racing for Godolphin but, having failed to make the grade, were bought cheaply at the Horses in Training Sales.
It's like that Polytrack played a pivotal role in their rejuvenation, as it's such a forgiving surface that it gives horses who may have been plagued by physical problems in the past the confidence to let themselves down on it.
13. Follow Pat Cosgrave, especially at Southwell
It's always good to latch on to a jockey whose career is on an upward curve, and Pat Cosgrave enjoyed his finest hour in August when steering Borderlescott to victory in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at Newmarket.
Cosgrave was champion apprentice in Ireland in 2003, and the fact that he has ridden 39 times for Luca Cumani in 2008 is an indication this his stock is rising in Britain.
Having put in the hard yards on the all-weather in recent seasons, he has built up a broad base of contacts that should keep the winners flowing during this winter. It's testament to Cosgrave's consistency that he has been able to operate at a strike-rate of 27 per cent at Southwell in 2008, and following him blind at the venue would have yielded a level-stakes profit of £34.16.
14. Expect In Running carnage at Lingfield
The final furlong at Lingfield has been described by Matt Williams, as the longest furlong in racing.The track's configuration, with it's tight bends and short home straight, lends itself to exciting racing and it's common to see the entire field covered by only a few lengths on the final bend.
It's equally common to see the lead change hands several times inside the final furlong, so plenty of short priced in play runners are often caught inside the final furlong, as it's often those who are played late who gain the upper hand.
15. Give greater respect to the form of claimers and sellers
All-weather claimers are notoriously poor fare, but in the current economic climate where disappointing results are being achieved at the sales, it's possible that more trainers may look to claimers and sellers as a way of achieving a fair price for horses they wish to pass on.
Richard Hannon's shrewd handling of filly Rebecca De Winter illustrates this point.
Hannon put the 88-rated two year old into the Tattersalls' horses in Training Sale at Newmarket on October 28, but she failed to fetch the money he was looking for so he bought her in for 6,500gns.
He entered her in a Lingfield claimer on Thursday with a price tag of only £10,000, which meant she was able to run off 8st 6lbs and according to the Racing Post Ratings was 5lbs clear of her highest rated rival. She took advantage of what looked a penalty kick with a stylish success under Richard Hughes to scoop the prize-money £2,279 for Hannon, and she was claimed, so the trainer walked away with a tidy profit.
16. The importance of race position and draw
The draw can be important at each of the all-weather tracks, although it should always be considered in tandem with horses' running styles. Obviously if a front-runner is parked wide it's a potential negative, but if a hold-up horse has an outside berth it probably won't make as much difference to his chance. So with horses who like to race prominently, look for low draws at Southwell, Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Great Leighs and Dundalk, while at Kempton a high draw helps horses with early speed to take a handy pitch.
17. Look for horses who hold a definite class edge in their division
It's important to remember that the size of the population of horses who race on the all-weather over the winter is relatively small, and in the classier races the same horses keep bumping into each other. So when a progressive horse who is a class above his rivals emerges, he does very well.
A recent example is Areyoutalkingtome. The competition couldn't live with him at sprint distances on the all-weather two seasons ago. He won six races in a row at Lingfield between 5f and 7f from October 2006 to February 2007, and the only time he was beaten on the all-weather during that period was when he failed to stay 1m1/2f at Wolverhampton.
18. Follow Neil Callan
Neil Callan has great stats in close finishes on the all-weather. He rarely gets horses beat by going too fast, so when he is up on the front end, the front-runners are probably running at a pace that they are comfortable with.
19. Respect Italian Raiders
Italy has all-weather racing at the Capannelle and several Italian trainers have made successful raids on all-weather races in Britain. The most recent was Salvatore Santella, whose Il Grande Maurizio won a handicap off 95 at 16-1 last month at Kempton.
20. Find the fastest horse in a sprint
It may sound obvious to find the fastest horse in a sprint, but Southwell sprints are invariable dominated by those who possess early speed, as it's very difficult to play catch-up in Fibresand sprints.
I hope you take a few pointers out of this article on board and it helps you with your all-weather betting.
Until next time.
Stay Lucky
Dave
